From Mensagenda — October 2005

by Tim Goetsch

In some of the reports concerning the Hurricane Katrina disaster, it’s mentioned that this was on a list of the three worst disasters that could hit the United States. Intrigued, I tried to track down this list.

It turns out the list was prepared some years ago by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Listed were a terrorist attack on New York City, a powerful hurricane hitting New Orleans, and a powerful earthquake hitting California. This list was released in early 2001, and so far two events have come to pass without there being adequate preparation in advance. So much for knowledge being our greatest weapon.

What’s more, the list seems a bit optimistic, as though we have to worry about only three things. Missing were everyone’s favorite disasters, giant meteor strikes and global warming. Meteor strikes were probably left off because it could be thousands of years before the next one. Global warming was left off because, at the time, it was still controversial. It wasn’t absolutely certain that it was happening. Since then, our knowledge about it has increased exponentially and there is no longer any serious doubt. But business interests have lobbied government into inaction. So much for being proactive.

The list of potential disasters could be easily longer. Anyone who watches PBS and the nonfiction cable channels should be able list a few of their own. I can think of five great disasters offhand, one of which can happen within a year and two others that are likely to happen this century. But if hypothetical disasters impressed and warned politicians, 9/11 and Katrina would be lesser issues than they are now, perhaps even nonissues.

Let’s discuss a real disaster, a historical one, the Mississippi flood of 1927. Not many people outside the area of flooding remember it. Few history books mention it, but they should. It had profound effects on modern government and society. Its lessons should not be forgotten, but we forgot them anyway.

The Mississippi River flooded nearly every year, but the flood of 1927 was especially bad, affecting the Mississippi and its tributaries from Iowa on south. The flooding started with heavy rains in September 1926, and didn’t subside until eleven months later. In places, the river swelled to 60 miles wide. As much as 13 percent of Arkansas was flooded.

In those days, disaster recovery was handled by local governments, churches, and fraternal organizations. But in 1927 even these organizations were destroyed. Those that still survived were ineffectual, too small, and, in some cases, corrupt. The federal government had to step in.

This changed more than flood control policies and disaster recovery programs. It was apparent that some things were too big for local organizations to handle. This idea began to pervade all of government and was largely responsible for the formation of the modern welfare state.

Emphasis has changed in the last couple of decades. The idea was to cut federal budgets (often it was a cut in name only) while pushing off responsibilities to local government, nonprofit organizations, and individuals. The problem is that when disasters happen, the local organizations are still overwhelmed and the federal government’s reaction is weak and slow.

Once again we have to learn from hard experience. This time I hope we put it in the history books so we don’t forget it.